Transport Futures: Press
Our archive of Noël Perry’s insights, quoted throughout the transportation industry.
In the Media
Noël Perry’s spot-on analyses and penetrating insights into transportation issues have long prompted leading industry publications to source his expertise in their articles.
For your reference, our growing archive collection presents a sampling of online sources that have profiled Noël.
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- Retired CEO, Transport America, and industry consultant
Contrary and provocative, Noël is not afraid to take stances around the data he analyzes and the consequences they present. Be prepared to be pushed and challenged to wrestle with these conclusions and be prepared to adapt early to the changing landscape Noël forecasts.
2018
Gain insights into driver pay trends, shipper-carrier cooperation, more at CCJ Solutions Summit
CCJ • November 7
The event will kick off Monday, Nov. 12, with an economic update by Truckstop.com’s chief economist Noël Perry.
Spot Truckload Rates Continue to Soar Amid Record Demand
Transport Topics • July 17
Perry believes that while the overall economy, including trucking, remains strong, eventually the economy will slow and the monthly increases in the spot and contract rates will subside.
Projections for 2019 freight market: Things could get ‘murky’
FleetOwner • May 21
Before the April 1 full enforcement date, there was a lot of industry-wide speculation and fear as to whether states would overreact and take a lot of drivers out of service and cause a panic in the market. But that hasn’t happened, and according to Perry, there haven’t been changes in market dynamics since April 1.
Spot market in the ELD era
FleetOwner • May 9
If you ask Noël Perry, he’ll tell you that the marketplace is “spectacular” right now, particularly for carriers. But the question is: How long will that last?
With soft ELD enforcement period over, shippers and carriers brace for whatever comes next
Logistics Management • April 20
“I think there has been a surprising amount of self-enforcement, or, put differently, what we know for sure is that shippers are behaving as if there is self-enforcement.”
Load Boards Evolve Transport Topics • April 20
The event will kick off Monday, Nov. 12, with an economic update by Truckstop.com’s chief economist Noël Perry.
ELD deadline passes without fanfare but brings detention time into focus
Fleet Owner • April 16 \
“Because you are all good business people, you learn how to solve problems. You will solve the ELD problem between now and next year.”
Economist Noël Perry Says Strong Freight Market, Driver Shortage Won’t Last
Transport Topics • April 12
“You should not expect a return to the 1950s unless we profoundly change the way we do things.”
Veteran Transportation Analyst Launches Website for Industry Insights
Truckinginfo • April 9
“I’ve always been fascinated by the radical changes that have revolutionized the transportation industry. My choice in naming my new site Transport Futures is a pointed reminder of that interest.”
Truck Driver Salaries Rising on Surging Freight Demand
The Wall Street Journal • March 30
The last thing any carrier or driver wants, Perry said, is to be in the crosshairs of an auditor or a plaintiff’s lawyer and not be able to demonstrate ELD compliance.
ELD enforcement begins Sunday with some forecasting Armageddon, others a non-event
DC Velocity • March 30
“The easiest way to get drivers is to pay them more.”
Tonnage Robust as Demand for Trucks Grows
Transport Topics • March 20
“The high value says that trucks have all the loads they can handle. We are at a point where some loads are not moving when the customer wants them to because they can’t find a truck.”
Electric cars, e-commerce present logistical challenges for automakers
Supply Chain Dive • February 20
“There are some profound privacy issues. But good information leads to efficiency.”
Anticipation surrounding ELD enforcement drives up spot rates
Supply Chain Dive • February 2
“The middle of February is the normal seasonal low point in rates,” Perry said. “We know the rates have been declining, but they are still holding about 30% above a year ago.”
One month in, the ELD mandate has mixed reviews
Supply Chain Dive • January 30
“We know that the prices people are asking and posting are considerably higher than they were a month ago. Truckers think they can get more and the shippers and brokers are asking for a lot more (capacity) just in case.”
Truck Tonnage Down in December, Up for 2017
Transport Topics • January 23
“Unequivocally the [capacity] market is very tight. Part of the reason is the ELD mandate that took effect in December.”
L.A. Fires Currently Providing Limited Impact on Overall California Freight Market
Go By Trucking • January 2
Truckers are reluctant to go inbound to “risky environments,” even if outbound loads are available.
CCJ • November 7
The event will kick off Monday, Nov. 12, with an economic update by Truckstop.com’s chief economist Noël Perry.
Transport Topics • July 17
Perry believes that while the overall economy, including trucking, remains strong, eventually the economy will slow and the monthly increases in the spot and contract rates will subside.
FleetOwner • May 21
Before the April 1 full enforcement date, there was a lot of industry-wide speculation and fear as to whether states would overreact and take a lot of drivers out of service and cause a panic in the market. But that hasn’t happened, and according to Perry, there haven’t been changes in market dynamics since April 1.
FleetOwner • May 9
If you ask Noël Perry, he’ll tell you that the marketplace is “spectacular” right now, particularly for carriers. But the question is: How long will that last?
Logistics Management • April 20
“I think there has been a surprising amount of self-enforcement, or, put differently, what we know for sure is that shippers are behaving as if there is self-enforcement.”
The event will kick off Monday, Nov. 12, with an economic update by Truckstop.com’s chief economist Noël Perry.
Fleet Owner • April 16 \
“Because you are all good business people, you learn how to solve problems. You will solve the ELD problem between now and next year.”
Transport Topics • April 12
“You should not expect a return to the 1950s unless we profoundly change the way we do things.”
Truckinginfo • April 9
“I’ve always been fascinated by the radical changes that have revolutionized the transportation industry. My choice in naming my new site Transport Futures is a pointed reminder of that interest.”
The Wall Street Journal • March 30
The last thing any carrier or driver wants, Perry said, is to be in the crosshairs of an auditor or a plaintiff’s lawyer and not be able to demonstrate ELD compliance.
DC Velocity • March 30
“The easiest way to get drivers is to pay them more.”
Transport Topics • March 20
“The high value says that trucks have all the loads they can handle. We are at a point where some loads are not moving when the customer wants them to because they can’t find a truck.”
Supply Chain Dive • February 20
“There are some profound privacy issues. But good information leads to efficiency.”
Supply Chain Dive • February 2
“The middle of February is the normal seasonal low point in rates,” Perry said. “We know the rates have been declining, but they are still holding about 30% above a year ago.”
Supply Chain Dive • January 30
“We know that the prices people are asking and posting are considerably higher than they were a month ago. Truckers think they can get more and the shippers and brokers are asking for a lot more (capacity) just in case.”
Transport Topics • January 23
“Unequivocally the [capacity] market is very tight. Part of the reason is the ELD mandate that took effect in December.”
Go By Trucking • January 2
Truckers are reluctant to go inbound to “risky environments,” even if outbound loads are available.
2017
Truck Tonnage Surges 7.6% in November
Transport Topics • December 19
“The market isn’t four times more tight, but what it says is that people are posting four times as many loads as the low,” Truckstop.com Senior Economist Noël Perry said.
Self-Driving Trucks May Be Closer Than They Appear
The New York Times • November 13
“This is the most powerful thing to hit us since the building of the superhighways in the 1950s,” said Noël Perry.
What it’s like to be a truck driver when suddenly everyone wants to hire you
LinkedIn • October 26
“By 2030, the driver shortage will be a distant memory. You’ll be telling your kids that people used to live in these things,” Perry said.
Spot Market Activity Still Bustling One Month After Devastation of Harvey, Irma
Transport Topics • October 3
Perry said that year-over-year comparisons were significantly higher, but the data is skewed because the spot market was so weak one year ago.
Innovators target the trucking industry at CSCMP Edge
Supply Chain Dive • September 28
“Rate Forecasting balances seasonal, geographic, random, economic, regulatory and permanent trends on each lane with deep statistical modeling, better than a human can on the fly,” said Truckstop.com Chief Economist Noel Perry.
For truckload carriers and their customers, the moment of truth has arrived
Supply Chain Quarterly • September 26
Although contract rates are already escalating, brokers may still find it difficult to pass on higher prices to their shipper customers, Perry said.
Stiff freight challenges await trucking in coming decade, says trucking economist
Overdrive • September 14
“This is another way in which the smart supply chain people are taking transportation out of the economy,” Perry says, “by substituting high service trucking but taking ton-miles out of the economy.”
Perry: Hurricanes will reduce U.S. GDP 0.5%
FleetOwner • September 13
“So, the effects in Texas will be heavily tank truck and railcar related, while in Florida, it will be dry vans full of consumer goods and flatbeds full of wall board.”
Will two disasters in three weeks move the cloud investment needle?
DC Velocity • September 13
Rates on Florida inbound hauls could spike 10 to 30 percent this week, and level off next week as volumes return to normal, Perry predicted.
Changing economy will strip truck freight in the coming decades, says trucking forecaster
CCJ • September 13
Some of that freight will be replaced with domestically produced goods, but it won’t make up for the losses, Perry says. Currently, about 30 percent of U.S. truck freight stems from imports.
Hurricane Harvey Will Hammer Trucking
Go By Truck • September 5
“I expect disruption to last for at least two months,” Perry said. “The big effect is not a shortage caused by an event, but the fact that the trucks are moving in goofy ways that lowers their effective mileage per day.”
Today’s Top Supply Chain and Logistics News From WSJ
The Wall Street Journal • September 1
Trucking networks are feeling the impact, with spot prices for shipping into Texas soaring 25%, according to economist Noel Perry, because the region is producing very little that can be transported out and pay for the return trips.
Trucking Ready for Harvey Recovery, Spot Market Data Suggests
Trucking Info • August 31
Because of the likelihood that there will be no freight to take out of the region, freight companies are adding cost to the front end, according to Perry.
Harvey update: Load volumes around Texas shrink, but rates climb; diesel expected to jump
CCJ • August 31
Freight availability both into and out of the region has fallen off. Loads inbound to Texas have dropped almost 20 percent, says Noël Perry.
Harvey Impedes Nearly 10% of US Trucking, Almost 100% on Gulf Coast
Transport Topics • August 31
“Spot pricing was already up strong, in double-digit territory. Market participants could easily add 5 percentage points to those numbers,” Perry said.
Today’s Top Supply Chain and Logistics News From WSJ
The Wall Street Journal • August 29
Economist Noël Perry says shipping costs will likely rise across a wide area far from Houston, based on the market’s response to previous natural disasters.
Hurricane Harvey a Trash, Logistics Disaster
Environmental Leader • August 29
The storm has so far affected as much as 10% of the country’s trucking capacity, said chief economist Noël Perry.
Freight Companies Scramble to Reroute Goods in Wake of Harvey
The Wall Street Journal • August 28
Shipping costs could rise anywhere from 5% to 22%, Mr. Perry said, based on the market’s response to past natural disasters.
Freight Companies Scramble to Reroute Goods in Wake of Harvey
Fox Business • August 28
Mr. Perry said nearly 10% of the nation’s trucking capacity could be affected by Harvey, and that prices to book big rigs have jumped anywhere from 5% to over 20% after other large-scale weather events.
Analysts Predict Spot Rates Could Soar Once ELD Mandate Goes Into Effect
Transport Topics • August 25
The mandate already is having an effect on the spot market ahead of the ELD implementation deadline.
Investors Are Wagering $12 Billion on This 72-Year-Old Railroad Savior
Fortune • August 24
“I have no doubt that Harrison will succeed if his health holds out,” says Noel Perry.
How will the ELD mandate impact pricing?
Truck News • August 15
Perry also noted about 40% of U.S. fleets are currently already using ELDs and will have worked through any hit to their productivity.
ELDs will drive up rates, increase shortage of drivers
FreightWaves • August 11
The result, especially if retailers are seeing competitors gain a capacity and delivery advantage, could be shippers bidding up rates to secure capacity.
Addressing the risk in trucking
Logistics Management • July 10
There’s never been such a wealth of facts and analytics captured by today’s research firms. But the sheer volume of these numbers can easily overwhelm logistics managers.
Package-Delivery Jobs Rise as More Consumers Shop Online
The Wall Street Journal • July 7
Those drops come as transportation companies pulling out of a prolonged freight-market slump are still struggling to align capacity with demand.
Hurricanes, ELDs and capacity: Perfect storm for capacity crunch and rates boost?
CCJ • April 20
Perry moderated the hour-long panel. He predicts a major capacity crunch, due to the impacts of the storms and adoption of electronic logging devices, to land sometime between March and July.
Truck Tonnage Surges 7.6% in NovemberTransport Topics • December 19
“The market isn’t four times more tight, but what it says is that people are posting four times as many loads as the low,” Truckstop.com Senior Economist Noël Perry said.
The New York Times • November 13
“This is the most powerful thing to hit us since the building of the superhighways in the 1950s,” said Noël Perry.
LinkedIn • October 26
“By 2030, the driver shortage will be a distant memory. You’ll be telling your kids that people used to live in these things,” Perry said.
Transport Topics • October 3
Perry said that year-over-year comparisons were significantly higher, but the data is skewed because the spot market was so weak one year ago.
Supply Chain Dive • September 28
“Rate Forecasting balances seasonal, geographic, random, economic, regulatory and permanent trends on each lane with deep statistical modeling, better than a human can on the fly,” said Truckstop.com Chief Economist Noel Perry.
Supply Chain Quarterly • September 26
Although contract rates are already escalating, brokers may still find it difficult to pass on higher prices to their shipper customers, Perry said.
Overdrive • September 14
“This is another way in which the smart supply chain people are taking transportation out of the economy,” Perry says, “by substituting high service trucking but taking ton-miles out of the economy.”
FleetOwner • September 13
“So, the effects in Texas will be heavily tank truck and railcar related, while in Florida, it will be dry vans full of consumer goods and flatbeds full of wall board.”
DC Velocity • September 13
Rates on Florida inbound hauls could spike 10 to 30 percent this week, and level off next week as volumes return to normal, Perry predicted.
CCJ • September 13
Some of that freight will be replaced with domestically produced goods, but it won’t make up for the losses, Perry says. Currently, about 30 percent of U.S. truck freight stems from imports.
Hurricane Harvey Will Hammer TruckingGo By Truck • September 5
“I expect disruption to last for at least two months,” Perry said. “The big effect is not a shortage caused by an event, but the fact that the trucks are moving in goofy ways that lowers their effective mileage per day.”
The Wall Street Journal • September 1
Trucking networks are feeling the impact, with spot prices for shipping into Texas soaring 25%, according to economist Noel Perry, because the region is producing very little that can be transported out and pay for the return trips.
Trucking Info • August 31
Because of the likelihood that there will be no freight to take out of the region, freight companies are adding cost to the front end, according to Perry.
CCJ • August 31
Freight availability both into and out of the region has fallen off. Loads inbound to Texas have dropped almost 20 percent, says Noël Perry.
Transport Topics • August 31
“Spot pricing was already up strong, in double-digit territory. Market participants could easily add 5 percentage points to those numbers,” Perry said.
The Wall Street Journal • August 29
Economist Noël Perry says shipping costs will likely rise across a wide area far from Houston, based on the market’s response to previous natural disasters.
Hurricane Harvey a Trash, Logistics DisasterEnvironmental Leader • August 29
The storm has so far affected as much as 10% of the country’s trucking capacity, said chief economist Noël Perry.
The Wall Street Journal • August 28
Shipping costs could rise anywhere from 5% to 22%, Mr. Perry said, based on the market’s response to past natural disasters.
Fox Business • August 28
Mr. Perry said nearly 10% of the nation’s trucking capacity could be affected by Harvey, and that prices to book big rigs have jumped anywhere from 5% to over 20% after other large-scale weather events.
Transport Topics • August 25
The mandate already is having an effect on the spot market ahead of the ELD implementation deadline.
Fortune • August 24
“I have no doubt that Harrison will succeed if his health holds out,” says Noel Perry.
Truck News • August 15
Perry also noted about 40% of U.S. fleets are currently already using ELDs and will have worked through any hit to their productivity.
FreightWaves • August 11
The result, especially if retailers are seeing competitors gain a capacity and delivery advantage, could be shippers bidding up rates to secure capacity.
Logistics Management • July 10
There’s never been such a wealth of facts and analytics captured by today’s research firms. But the sheer volume of these numbers can easily overwhelm logistics managers.
The Wall Street Journal • July 7
Those drops come as transportation companies pulling out of a prolonged freight-market slump are still struggling to align capacity with demand.
CCJ • April 20
Perry moderated the hour-long panel. He predicts a major capacity crunch, due to the impacts of the storms and adoption of electronic logging devices, to land sometime between March and July.
A Sampling of Publications Quoting Noël Perry
